The cities that saved America
Voters in Detroit, Philadelphia and (possibly) Atlanta cost Trump re-election.
What a difference 24 hours makes. This time Wednesday morning, I was nervous about Trump somehow pulling off re-election, thanks in no small part to his surprising gains among minority voters. This Thursday morning, I feel a sense of hope unlike anything in the last five years.
Joe Biden won Wisconsin and Michigan yesterday. If he holds Arizona (which may have been called prematurely, but he should hang on) and Nevada, he’s President. Even if these states somehow slip away, it’s looking very good for him in Pennsylvania as mail-in ballots are counted. And even a win in Georgia is now a real possibility.
Biden’s election is not guaranteed - it is 2020, after all - but I really feel like the TV networks will call it some time today. Biden has already launched a transition team website.
If you spent Wednesday like me, constantly refreshing election-results websites to get updated vote totals, you probably noticed a pattern in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Georgia. Trump was leading in all three states, but votes in the counties of Philadelphia, Wayne (Detroit) and DeKalb (Atlanta) were late to be counted. And there were so many votes for Biden that they pushed him into the lead in Michigan and almost certainly will in Pennsylvania.
Georgia is more of a wild card, but it’s going to be very close - and may even give the Democrats new hope for retaking the Senate, as the contest between incumbent David Purdue and Dem challenger John Ossoff will go to a run-off election if neither candidate gets 50% of the vote first time around. As I write this, Purdue has exactly 50% of the vote with many ballots from the Atlanta area to be counted.
(Georgia’s other Senate race, a “jungle primary” for the seat currently held by Republican Kelly Loeffler, is also set to go to a run-off election. Sorry, Georgians, but you’re going to be inundated with political ads for weeks to come.)
For all the talk about “red states” and “blue states,” America’s real fault line is between rural areas that vote overwhelmingly Republican and urban areas that vote almost in lockstep for Democrats. Aside from (where else?) Florida, where Biden’s underperformance among Latino voters in Miami cost him the state, that seems to be the rule almost everywhere in America. Even in Republican Utah, Joe Biden easily won the Salt Lake City area, while the New York State electoral map looks mostly red even though Biden won it by eighteen points.
Rural America tilted strongly Republican long before Trump decided to run for President, and we will spend years studying why a bombastic New York City plutocrat appealed to them. (At least, we should study it. In practice I’m sure people will say “they’re white supremacists” and move on, because that’s how academia works in 2020.) But American cities held the line, and Detroit, Philadelphia and quite Atlanta in particular saved the country from a demagogue who would have done untold damage in a second term.
That these cities are largely African-American hasn’t escaped my notice, either. And after a year of racial tension and protests against police brutality, I trust that President-elect Biden will remember that.
Remember when Rudy Giuliani was Time magazine’s Man of the Year? That was something.
I had always respected the man for helping to turn around blighted New York City, and for his inspiring leadership following the 9/11 attacks. But he’ll be remembered, if at all, for being Donald Trump’s most persistent stooge:
While he was ranting and raving about ballot fraud and voters being bussed in from Camden, New Jersey to vote - no dog whistles there! - Fox News interrupted his press conference to declare that Joe Biden had won the state of Michigan. This was the greatest thing to ever happen on Fox News that didn’t involve Andy Levy “apologizing” to Chris Brown.
It would probably help if Biden could clarify that he's not a Socialist :-o ... was just talking to family members in the US and that seems to have been a major issue in Florida, among others. But they were also saying that the various Latino groups are very diverse. A lot seems to depend on their background and that of the previous generation (for example, children of people who left Cuba).
If Biden gets the presidency, he has to engage Latinos effectively... thinking forward to another election. Every. Vote. Counts. and it pays to remember that well ahead of time, not when it's too late. A lot of these voters are probably not doing a logical analysis of Biden vs. Trump. (To say the least.) They are going more on a gut feeling of whether they feel heard and addressed. There's a lot of power in simply listening to people - or even convincingly pretending to listen, unfortunately.
The rural vs. urban divide is interesting to say the least. What is it in Trump that appeals so strongly to working people, of all things? Likely to be poorly educated, probably defining things in simpler terms, attracted by the souped-up macho act ... (ick). (Actually, they may have a few things in common with him there!! Hmmm...)
It would be both useful and fascinating to dig deeper into that and figure out what makes those voters tick. Also, why don't they realize that he is exactly the sort of person that one would expect them NOT to like...someone who lives on the backs of other people without giving it a second thought. And he probably thinks they are stupid for letting it happen. Yet as tempting as it might be to agree with that, things are never that simple.
I think that rural America's attraction to Trump has to do with something very elementary that bypasses reason. They relate to him. And they specifically do not relate to someone educated who applies reason and logic. They'd have a beer on the back stoop with Trump, but not with Biden. Biden likely makes them feel uncomfortable; he thinks outside the scope of what they know and understand. Trump, not so much.
Jonathan Last: "Trump owes nothing to the Republican party. His interest is not in the party’s success, but in his continued ownership of it. As such, his next venture depends on his being able to export a large number of highly aggrieved followers. In order to remain relevant, he will need to bring his people with him.
And that means telling them what they want to hear, not what they ought to hear."
Exactly. His crowd is not looking for someone logical and sensible. They want a leader who gives them what they want, and reason may not be part of that package.