Reasons for hope

The polls are closer than they should be, but other signs point to Biden's re-election.

Yes, I know about the polls showing a neck and neck race between Trump and Biden. That it’s this close is depressing. That Trump has more than five percent support is depressing.

So when the election is held tomorrow, I am terrified that it may be agonizingly close and…sorry, what’s that?

It’s not until November, 2024?

There are still fifteen months, during which Trump could be thrown in jail, Biden could move to a seniors’ retirement living community, and/or the Yellowstone caldera could erupt and destroy the earth as we know it?

Let’s not get my hopes up here.

Well, in that case, never mind.

Okay, that’s a bit much. With Trump appearing increasingly unhinged (and most of his Republican “opponents” as cowed and compliant as ever) the interval between today and election day could see an event that’s less January 6, 2021 and more April 19, 1993. Or April 19, 1995.

Despite my low opinion of the MAGA faithful, the overwhelming majority will not resort to political violence or terrorism. But it only takes one of them to potentially pull off something devastating.

And the William Goldman Rule goes both ways. I think Biden has been a competent President, but the shambolic withdrawal from Afghanistan - from which his approval ratings still haven’t fully recovered - proves he’s capable of really screwing up.¹ His popularity might be at Brian Mulroney 1992 levels by Election Day.

And yet…when you ignore the neck-and-neck polls, it sure doesn’t look like a political environment in which the GOP is ready to take back the White House next year.