I told you to stop panicking
There's a long way to go, but the polls might just be turning in Joe Biden's favor.
I’ve been throwing cold water on many hot takes about 2024 election polling these past few weeks, and my points still stand:
the election isn’t for eight and a half months;
a lot can happen in a week, much less eight and a half months;
the lucky people who don’t obsess over politics aren’t really paying much attention to the campaign yet;
RFK, Jr. might do pretty well for a third-party candidate and affect the result in some key states;
pollsters in 2024 are still coming to grips with the fact that nobody has landlines anymore; and,
historically speaking, it would be surprising if the actual election results were anywhere near what the polls said in mid-March.
Now that we’ve gotten all of that out of the way, lookie what we have here:
An 0.6% lead for Biden is barely perceptible, and with Republicans’ natural advantage in the Electoral College,1 it wouldn’t be enough for him to win the election.
RealClearPolitics still has Trump ahead by 1.7%. But even their chart is trending in the right direction:
Could it be that Biden got a State of the Union address bump after all? Or, are voters suddenly asking themselves, “wait a minute, they seriously nominated Trump again?!?”
Trump has the highest floor of support - 30-35% of American voters will cast a ballot for Trump, no matter what he does. Even Biden supporters know he doesn’t inspire that kind of enthusiasm.
But Trump also has the lowest ceiling of support. The man inspires passions in both directions, and I’d wager it’s around 40% of Americans who will never, ever vote for Trump, regardless of circumstances.
It’s not that no one out there hates Joe Biden - it’s 2024, and everyone is hated by someone for some reason - but the number of people who won’t vote for him, come what may, is likely much lower than the similar measure for Trump. I expect even many of the anti-Israel progressives calling him “Genocide Joe” will calm down by November.
In an election that could come down to voters deciding “which of these guys do I hate more?” that could be a difference-maker. I’ll say it again: never assume Trump can’t possibly win - and never assume Trump is guaranteed to win.
The Democrats’ solid ground game, compared to state-level MAGA-dominated Republican parties tearing each other apart, might make up for that advantage. But that’s another post.
From your lips to goddess's ear! :-)