Will Biden win in Texas?

Probably not. But the fact that it's even this close is good news for Democrats.

Democrats have dreamed about flipping the deeply Republican Lone Star State for several election cycles (remember Beto O’Rourke? No? Well, he was a big deal in 2018, I swear) and some recent polls suggest that 2020 might be their year. A Dallas Morning News survey has Biden three points ahead of Trump:

Former Vice President Joe Biden has regained a narrow lead over President Donald Trump in Texas, after wooing more independents and Hispanics, according to a poll released Sunday by The Dallas Morning News and University of Texas at Tyler.

Biden’s lead among likely voters is 48%-45%, within the poll’s margin of error.

[…]

No Democrat running for president has carried Texas since Jimmy Carter in 1976. Biden is knocking on the door, the poll suggests, though Trump has posted gains among white suburban voters lately.

In the September poll, Biden was ahead among independents, 46-37. But in the latest survey, completed Tuesday, Biden’s edge among independents grew to 51-29. They make up 27% of…