The Thin Blue Trend Line
Trump and Biden are tied nationally. But in special elections across the country, one party has consistently overperformed.
Whenever I look at polling for 2024, I despair:
Yes, we’re still over a year away. But the fact that it’s this close at all, given everything we know about Donald Trump and having already (barely) made it through four years of his Presidency, is unbelievably depressing.
That said, whenever I look at actual election results since 2020, I feel hopeful. Democrats held the Senate in 2022 - thanks in no small part to Republicans pissing away winnable races on celebrity and/or wingnut candidates - and limited the GOP to a very small margin of victory in the House.
And at the state level, the trend is clear:
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