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The Thin Blue Trend Line

The Thin Blue Trend Line

Trump and Biden are tied nationally. But in special elections across the country, one party has consistently overperformed.

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Damian Penny
Sep 21, 2023
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The Thin Blue Trend Line
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Whenever I look at polling for 2024, I despair:

Yes, we’re still over a year away. But the fact that it’s this close at all, given everything we know about Donald Trump and having already (barely) made it through four years of his Presidency, is unbelievably depressing.

The Triad
Trump Could Win: Let’s Process Our Anticipatory Grief Together
1. Embrace Your Destiny Over the last few weeks I’ve basically talked myself into thinking that Donald Trump is going to be reelected to the presidency. That he’ll lose the popular vote—though by a narrower margin than he did in 2020—and win the Electoral College, fair and square…
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2 years ago · 229 likes · 612 comments · Jonathan V. Last

That said, whenever I look at actual election results since 2020, I feel hopeful. Democrats held the Senate in 2022 - thanks in no small part to Republicans pissing away winnable races on celebrity and/or wingnut candidates - and limited the GOP to a very small margin of victory in the House.

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And at the state level, the trend is clear:

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