The AfD vs. everyone else

Germany's far-right party won't win this weekend's election, but if the other parties don't get it together they could win the next one.

If you’re worried about the far-right Alternative fur Deutschland (AfD) party doing well in this weekend’s German elections, I have some good news: they aren’t going to win.

While AfD is polling higher than at any point in its relatively short history, they’re still far behind the center-right CDU, which is almost certain to finish first. Indeed, I wouldn’t be surprised if the party underperforms its polling numbers, as AfD-curious Germans realize a vote for the far right isn’t necessarily a mere protest vote anymore.

Also, maybe it’s just a Canadian perspective, but I can’t imagine the endorsements of Elon Musk and J.D. Vance are much of a selling point these days.

Now the bad news: barring an Atlanta-Falcons-Super-Bowl-level collapse, AfD is still gonna finish second, well ahead of the Greens and the Social Democrats. With CDU (and its Bavarian sister party, CSU) unlikely to win anywhere close to a majority of seats in the German Bundestag, and having ruled out an alliance with AfD, …