Voters in Georgia go to the polls one more time today, to vote in two Senate run-off elections. If Democrats win both races, they take control of the Senate and will hold the White House and both Houses of Congress after January 20. If the Republican candidates hold one or both seats, Susan Collins and Lisa Murkowski become the most powerful people in America.
So, no pressure.
Rather than make a definite prediction about what’s going to happen, I’m going to go the Nate Silver route and break down the percentages. Unlike Nate Silver I’m relying on nothing more than my own intuition. (Or maybe that is how Silver does it. Who knows?)
Republicans hold both seats - 45% probability.
Despite Trump’s best efforts to find another 11,780 votes, Joe Biden won the Presidential election in Georgia. But it is still a Republican-leaning state, and Biden’s vote total undoubtedly included many disgruntled Republicans who’d had it with Trump but aren’t ready to give Democrats the car keys just ye…
Keep reading with a 7-day free trial
Subscribe to Rigid Thinking to keep reading this post and get 7 days of free access to the full post archives.