Stop me if you’ve heard this before: the authoritarian leader of a once-mighty military power which had fallen on hard times oversees an apparent revival of the economy, harnesses nationalist sentiment to rally the population behind him, and scores some military victories against the smaller, weaker neighbors it once dominated.
Then he presses his luck further, the tide of war turns against him and his country, and he’s eventually hiding out in a bunker while his mental and physical health go into serious decline.
I’m not sure what’s happening with the President of Russia these days, but the special military operationᵀᴹ he launched with great fanfare last year seems to be taking its toll on him:
Okay, maybe that’s just a cold. But it comes after months of speculation about his health problems and even suggestions that he made his push to conquer Ukraine to secure his legacy before he dies.
He secured his legacy, alright.
Danish intelligence believes Putin is suffering from chronic pain, suggesting that karma is real and it is spectacular:
In its 2021 annual report, the FE said Putin was "very likely" to remain Russia's leader after the next presidential election in 2024. However, in its report for 2022, it changed this forecast to a less certain one, that Putin is "likely" to remain in power for the next five years.
"But our biggest uncertainty concerns his health, or someone removing him because of his failing health," the intelligence official said.
FE does not believe that Putin is suffering from a terminal illness, but rather is in severe chronic pain after several falls and accidents.
"That’s why he tends to sit and grab things tightly. It’s to ease the pain," the official noted.
The publication notes that various media previously reported that Putin was suffering from the effects of a fall from a horse in the 2000s. Later, it was reported that he had also been injured during judo and hockey classes over the past few years.
At the same time, FE believes that Putin had previously suffered from a form of cancer and was being treated for it when he started the war, which may have influenced his decision.
FE does not expect Putin to die from the disease he is suffering from. But over time, it may lead to the fact that the Russian elite will want to see a stronger person at the helm.
A commentator for The Economist makes a similar point. Speculation about Putin’s health might be wishcasting - just as “General Winter” has repeatedly stepped in to save Russia from invading armies, maybe “Admiral Cancer” will do the same - and/or it could be a sign that Putin’s underlings have grown frustrated with how badly his stupid war has gone.
Yes, I know making predictions about the future is pretty much doomed to fail, but I’ll do it anyway: I don’t think Putin will be in a position to make a televised New Year’s Day address on January 1, 2024.
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