On second thought, please start ignoring us again

When we wished Americans would start paying attention to Canada, we never meant it this way.

Here in Canada, a common complaint we have about you Americans is that you hardly seem to know we exist.

Despite being each other's largest trading partners, key military allies, and sharing what's often called the world's largest undefended border, we've long felt taken for granted by the United States. Meanwhile, we're immersed in American culture and news—often paying more attention to your politics than our own.

This is probably inevitable, given that your population is ten times larger and your economy is the world's biggest. Still, we've long wished you Americans would at least acknowledge us once in a while.

And now I want to know who used the cursed monkey's paw.

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said “there isn’t a snowball’s chance in hell that Canada would become part of the United States,” on the same day U.S. president-elect Donald Trump declared that he’s open to using “economic force” to acquire Canada.

Trump, speaking at a press conference at Mar-a-Lago, refused to rule out the use of military force to seize control of the Panama Canal and Greenland. He was also asked if he was considering using military force to acquire Canada.

"No, economic force," he responded. "Because Canada and the United States, that would really be something."

"You get rid of that artificially drawn line, and you take a look at what that looks like, and it would also be much better for national security. … We basically protect Canada."

On Tuesday evening, Trump posted a pair of maps to his Truth Social platform: one shows the American flag covering both Canada and the U.S., while the other displays the two countries with the words "United States" emblazoned over them.

[…]

In the past, Trump has accused Canada of accepting a $100-billion subsidy from the United States. It's unclear exactly what he is referencing, but it may refer to the trade deficit between the two countries. A trade deficit occurs when the dollar value of a country's imports is more than its exports. In 2023, the U.S. trade deficit with Canada was US$41 billion.

But on Tuesday, that purported $100-billion subsidy rose to $200 billion. CTVNews.ca has reached out to Trump's media office to clarify what the $200-billion figure represents.

"I love the Canadian people, they're great," he said. "We're spending hundreds of billions a year to take care of Canada. … We can't do it forever."

How serious is Donald Trump about this "51st state" nonsense? Only he and God know for sure, and maybe The Lord long ago threw up His hands in frustration trying to figure out that guy.

It could be the opening gambit in a trade negotiation, or just old-fashioned trolling.

Which is exactly what you want from the man who'll soon occupy the most powerful office on Earth and have access to the nuclear codes.

Committed anti-free-trader Trump is threatening to slap tariffs on Canadian imports once he's sworn into office, citing alleged national security grounds. It goes without saying that Canada will have to retaliate.

Dan Gardner argues that our only choice is to make it as painful as possible for Americans, even if it adds to our own burden:

How Canada Should Respond to Trump

The point of Trump’s bullying is — psychological gratification aside — to exhibit his power to the world, just as the Athenians did in destroying a city-state that was as harmless to Athens as Canada is to the United States. That’s why his seemingly gratuitous humiliations are not gratuitous. They’re the point. And in Trump’s mind, if Canada does as he demands it will only confirm that he is strong and Canada is weak, increasing his contempt.

So what should we do? Melos ultimately landed on the right solution: Threaten the bully. Say, “if you come for us we may not be able to stop you but we will make you bleed.”

That didn’t work for Melos because Melos really was too weak to make credible threats. But in this critical way, Canada is not Melos.

Canada is a nation with the second-largest land-mass in the world. We have more people than California. Our economy is the tenth-largest in the world. Canadians have a habit of thinking of Canada as a relatively minor country, a peripheral country, a lovely place filled with lovely people, but a country that does not throw its weight around because it has none to throw. Aside from “does not throw its weight around,” that is entirely wrong. We have abundant wealth and resources and we are more than capable of getting in the ring. Doubt that? Go dig up some Nazis in Normandy and ask them.

Canada is the second-largest trading partner of the United States. Our automobile industry has been tightly integrated with the American industry since the 1960s. And while the United States is a major petroleum exporter to the world, it imports almost as much as it exports — and one-half of those imports come from Canada.

If Trump slaps all Canadian exports to the US with a 25% tariff, American industries, businesses, and consumers will pay a lot more for a huge array of goods and services. Inflation will surge.

But that’s not nearly enough pain, not least because Trump is likely to exempt Canadian exports his interests are particularly sensitive to, such as petroleum. So we need to respond with our own brutality.

We need to make the bastard bleed.

Threaten to put sky-high tariffs on all imports from the US. But far more importantly, cut off trade. Uranium, potash, go down the list. Slap export taxes or bans on the lot. Choke the life out of the American automobile industry and give Michigan the economic equivalent of a coronary — at exactly the moment that Chinese car manufacturers are threatening to swallow global markets. Explode the price of oil in the United States, watch the numbers grow on gas station signs, and listen to the howls of American drivers.

Donald Trump may be a sociopath with a brutal and primitive understanding of human relations, but he’s not indifferent to his own interests, and when American prices soar and American industries contract and American jobs are lost, his interests will be hammered. He will bleed.

I don’t underestimate the damage this would do to Canada. It would turn a disaster into a catastrophe. But the goal, remember, is not merely to make Trump bleed: It is to make him back off by credibly threatening to make him bleed. And there is no other way. We either threaten savage reprisals that hurt Trump and devastate us or we slowly get beaten into submission and penury.

I don't believe in trade wars, which usually end up hurting consumers on both sides, though they may benefit some well-connected rent-seekers. (It's worth noting that the outgoing President has his own protectionist instincts—whether or not they make sense—while we Canadians have our own literal sacred cows, which are spared from having to compete on their merits while we pay through the nose for milk.)

But if this were merely a trade war, I'd feel relieved.

I've long been about as pro-American—or at least anti-anti-American—as a Canadian can be, and my hope is that this will blow over before too long and we can carry on as normal. Compared to most countries that border a much more populous and powerful neighbor—think Ukraine, or really any country that borders Russia, especially those stuck between Russia and Germany—Canada has done astonishingly well.

But this feels like a spousal argument in which one finally said something that truly crossed the line. It may not end the marriage, but nothing will ever be the same again.

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Justin Trudeau, Culture Warrior