My cautiously optimistic map

I think Biden will win, but I'm not getting too overconfident this time.

In 2016, I was feeling so cocky about Hillary Clinton’s chances - especially after the “Access Hollywood” incident - that I openly mused about her winning all 50 states. Seriously. I backed off from that closer to Election Day, but I still thought she had it in the bag.

So, yeah, I’m being way more cautious in 2020, despite polls showing Biden headed for a resounding win. (Contrary to popular belief, the 2016 polls really weren’t that far off - except in Wisconsin, where Trump’s narrow win really did come out of nowhere.)

Behold my obligatory 270 to win map:

Biden will make it agonizingly close in Texas and Georgia - in the latter, he may help pull at least one Democratic Senate candidate over the finish line - but I just don’t see him winning either state outright. (Although these early voting numbers from Texas sure make you wonder.) And in the land of Florida Man, I think Cuban- and Venezuelan-Americans, scarred by their experiences with socialism, will give Trump another agonizi…