Anything can happen, and it usually does
"Black swan" events are actually quite common. We're arguably seeing one today.
I was busy yesterday playing around with a free AI image generator doing important legal work, so I never got around to posting about this article at The Hill about “seven wild plot twists that could upend the 2024 election”:
In the past, unforeseen and often tragic events have radically changed the trajectories of presidential campaigns. The Sept. 11 terrorist attacks transformed the nation, sent the U.S. to war, and surely reelected President George W. Bush in 2004.
In September 2008, a national economic meltdown sparked a global financial crisis two months before Election Day. A weak and uncertain reaction from GOP nominee John McCain sealed the defeat of his declining campaign, resulting in Barack Obama (D) winning an impressive 365 to 173 Electoral College victory.
Election year 2020 brought the COVID-19 crisis, and the U.S. economy experienced an unprecedented shutdown. According to post-election data, voters cited President Trump’s handling of the pandemic as the leading issue contributing to his defeat.
[…]
In the 1960s, tragic, unforeseen events transformed the 1964 and 1968 presidential elections. First, on Nov. 22, 1963, President John F. Kennedy was assassinated in Dallas. Vice President Lyndon Johnson was sworn into office and a year later won a landslide against conservative Republican nominee Arizona Sen. Barry Goldwater.
Then Johnson dropped a political bombshell on March 31, 1968, withdrawing from his reelection campaign seven months before the November election. Incumbent Vice President Hubert Humphrey won the Democratic nomination but was defeated by former Vice President Richard Nixon on Nov. 5, 1968.
Currently, as a backdrop to the 2024 presidential cycle, this week illustrates the instability of the national political landscape. Exhibit A: House Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) was just removed from office — the first fired Speaker in American history. Exhibit B: In New York, a presiding judge issued a gag order to the leading GOP presidential nominee, former President Donald Trump, during his $250 million civil fraud trial.
On Earth-2, Donald Trump being on trial for a massive civil fraud and having a gag order issued against him because he won’t shut the [bleep] up would be a game-changer. But we’re so resigned to the madness - and 99.9% of Republicans making excuses for it, if not outright defending it - that it’s just “Trump being Trump” and we yawn and move on to the next shiny object.
The writer, Myra Adams, lists several events which could turn the 2024 election, still thirteen months away, on its ear, including this one:
An international incident or an escalation of an existing conflict demands a U.S. military response. Suddenly, foreign policy takes center stage. The U.S. is at war, resulting in a massive shift of public opinion away from domestic issues. Moreover, the conflict impacts the foundation of the U.S. economy. Think of China attacking Taiwan, disrupting the microchip supply chain. Imagine Russia using a nuclear device in Ukraine. Or, Ukraine falls, and Putin invades a NATO country. A military draft could potentially be instituted if the all-volunteer forces need boosting.
Alas, this morning’s news may have already proven Adams correct:
The situation is moving extremely quickly, and I’ll hold off on taking detailed news reports and viral videos - especially viral videos - at face value until they’ve been confirmed. This fire doesn’t need any more gasoline poured on it.
A few early thoughts:
even the Middle East, which has been some kind of conflict zone for literally my entire life, can still surprise you.
the next few days will be a serious mask-off moment on social media, with many users - a disproportionate number of whom likely have some version of the “in this house we believe…” sign on their lawns - gloating and cheering on the murder of Jews.
meanwhile, MAGAworld will pivot from thinly veiled antisemitic tropes to full-throated support for Israel, but more for Christian-nationalist beliefs and hatred of Muslims than support for a Jewish state.
Thank God, now more than ever, Britain’s main left-of-centre opposition party isn’t led by Jeremy Corbyn.
once-respected thinkers will reveal their brains to have been thoroughly broken by Xwitter and Trump:
conspiracy theories aside, Netanyahu’s government should face some consequences for this. Early indications suggest Israel was caught napping.
Israel’s withdrawal from Gaza, which I supported at the time, is now exposed as a massive failure which shows the Palestinian leadership - especially Hamas - is more interested in driving out the “Zionists” than building something resembling a functioning state.
Hamas knows it cannot win. Right? My initial thought was that the goal is to provoke an “overreaction” by Israel, terrorize Israeli Jews into leaving voluntarily, and to torpedo peace deals between Israel and Arab states.1
Which would make sense if you’re thinking rationally. Hamas’ founding charter includes gems like this:
The Prophet, Allah bless him and grant him salvation, has said: "The Day of Judgement will not come about until Moslems fight the Jews (killing the Jews), when the Jew will hide behind stones and trees. The stones and trees will say O Moslems, O Abdulla, there is a Jew behind me, come and kill him.'"....There is no solution for the Palestine question except through Jihad. Initiatives, proposals and international conferences are all a waste of time and vain endeavors. Palestine is an Islamic land.
Zionist organizations under various names and shapes, such as Freemasons, Rotary Clubs, espionage groups and others...are all nothing more than cells of subversion and saboteurs. The Islamic peoples should perform their role in confronting the conspiracies of these saboteurs.
Moslem society confronts a vicious enemy which acts in a way similar to Nazism. He has deprived people of their homeland. In their Nazi treatment, the Jews made no exception for women or children.
Our enemies took control of the world media. They were behind the French Revolution and the Communist Revolution....They were behind World War I, when they were able to destroy the Islamic Caliphate, making financial gains and controlling resources. They obtained the Balfour Declaration, formed the League of Nations through which they could rule the world. They were behind World War II, through which they made huge financial gains by trading in armaments, and paved the way for the establishment of their state. It was they that instigated the replacement of the League of Nations with the United Nations and the Security Council to enable them to rule the world through them. There is no war going on any where, without [them] having their finger in it.
The Palestinian Liberation Organization adopted the idea of the secular state, which completely contradicts the idea of religious ideology. The day the PLO adopts Islam as its way of life, we will become its soldiers, and fuel for its fire that will burn the enemies. Until that day, the Islamic Resistance Movement's stand towards the PLO is that of the son towards his father, the brother towards his brother and the relative to relative, who suffers his pain and supports him in confronting the enemies, wishing him to be wise and well-guided....
The Zionist invasion is a vicious invasion. It does not refrain from resorting to all methods, using all evil and contemptible ways to achieve its end. It relies greatly on the secret organizations it gave rise to, such as the Freemasons, the Rotary and Lions Club, other sabotage groups. All these organizations work in the interest of Zionism... They aim at undermining societies, destroying values, corrupting consciences, deteriorating character and annihilating Islam. It is behind the drug trade and alcoholism in all its kinds so as to facilitate its control and expansion.
when someone tells you who they are, believe them.
It will never not be kind of funny that Middle East peace envoy Jared Kushner kind of got results. For a while, at least.
Trump and his supporters have told us what thet are, but many Americans refuse to hear. Or is it possible that many Americans secretly believe Trump and others are correct?