Trudeau is Tru-done
It's too early for me to draw conclusions about the 2025 federal election, but it's just too much fun to pass up.
By-elections (“special elections,” to you Americans) are a funny thing. It’s not uncommon for voters to use them to let their freak flag fly and cast a protest vote against the party they usually support, only to return “home” in the next general election. Democrat Doug Jones’ victory in an Alabama Senate race a few years ago, thanks primarily to the GOP nominating an actual predator to replace Jeff Sessions, is a notable example.
So, I’m wary of drawing too many conclusions from a by-election result.
Except for this one. This result is so shocking, I’m pretty sure it was measured on the Richter scale.
The Conservatives picked up a significant upset win against Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s Liberals in the federal byelection in Toronto-St. Paul’s riding.
Conservative candidate Don Stewart pulled off the stunning upset, with 100 per cent of polls reporting his victory (42.1 per cent of the vote) over Leslie Church, who received 40.5 per cent.
[…]
Many have viewed this race as the latest test of Prime Minister Trudeau’s leadership, raising additional questions about his future should the Liberals lose what has been a stronghold for the party.
Tuesday’s byelection results mark the first time a Conservative MP has won in the riding of Toronto-St. Paul’s since 1988.
The seat was considered a must-win for Trudeau and a loss is a massive blow that could be the final verdict before he steps down after 11 years as Liberal leader. The Liberals threw everything they had at the riding, with more than a dozen cabinet ministers knocking on doors for Church.
The Conservatives haven’t won a single seat in Toronto proper since 2011.
There’s a reason Tories compete hard for votes in the “905 belt” surrounding the city of Toronto, but usually put in only a token effort in the city proper. When these voters want to show their frustration with the Liberals, they vote for the left-wing NDP. Conservatives in Toronto itself (the “416 buckle,” a nickname I’m sure will catch on any day now) are field-fillers.
In the Toronto-St. Paul’s riding, the Tories’ best performance in recent years was in 2011, when the CPC candidate came within eight percentage points of unseating Liberal incumbent Carolyn Bennett.
Until last night. And, from all indications, the unsuccessful Liberal candidate had no history of trying to pick up teenagers at the mall.
I’ve been saying for months, and still maintain, that it’s too early to pronounce Joe Biden doomed this November. He may still be behind in the polls, but just barely - and RCP’s average is badly skewed by a crazy Rasmussen poll showing Trump nine points ahead.
The next Canadian federal election isn’t due until October, 2025, so Trudeau and the Liberals have much more time to potentially turn things around. So why am I declaring him finished while giving Biden a chance?
There are a few reasons:
A “Tru-done” headline was too good (or should I say, so bad it’s good) opportunity to pass up.
Wishcasting. As someone who’d be considered a moderate liberal in America but a conservative in Canada, I want Biden to win and Trudeau to lose.
Biden isn’t that far behind Trump, even in the swing states. Trudeau and the Liberals, by contrast, are almost polling Rishi Sunak numbers.
With over a year to go before the election (unless Trudeau pulls a Macron and calls it early) the Liberals are already pulling out the big guns: abortion, same-sex marriage and Trump, Trump, Trump.
Paradoxically, the only thing that might save Justin Trudeau is…Donald Trump getting re-elected President of the United States.
There are more Trump fans up here than you might expect, and they are ferociously dedicated to the Orange God-King, but they’re greatly outnumbered. Many Canadians (and, honestly, many Americans) are still in denial that he could actually become President again, and if that terrifying possibility comes true, it might throw the Liberals a lifeline.
Publicly standing up to the Americans is major aspect of Canadian politics, but it doesn’t play nearly as well when the President is a moderate Democrat. When it’s a conservative Republican - especially a conservative Republican as unhinged, and more openly isolationist and protectionist, as Donald Trump - it’s a sure vote-getter.
Would Justin Trudeau and the Liberals secretly root for a Trump victory in order to save their own jobs? Are they so cynical that they’d accept the aftershocks of Trump’s re-election, and its impact on world trade, race relations and democracy itself, in order to improve their chances of hanging on in 2025?
My friends, it’s the Natural Governing Partyᵀᴹ of Canada. To ask these question is to answer them.