Deterrence, Putin-style
A new report says Russia has responded to a new NATO country on its borders by...running away.
There is a 0% chance I'll support Donald Trump for President in 2024.
Update: there is a 1% chance I'll support Donald Trump for President in 2024.
Ask any Russia apologist, whether an extreme right-winger, left-winger or “foreign policy realist,” why Vladimir Putin is trying to subjugate Ukraine and he or she will inevitably respond that it’s because Russia feels threatened by NATO expansion.
Why this justifies the invasion and occupation of a non-NATO country like Ukraine - not to mention non-NATO countries Georgia and Moldova - while staying out of full NATO members Estonia and Latvia, is left unsaid.
And now, with Finland having ended decades of neutrality and becoming part of the alliance, we can watch in real time as Russia beefs up its defenses at the border with another hostile country.
Sorry, I made a typo. Instead of “beefs up” I meant “bugs out.”
Russian bases near the border with Finland are almost empty, despite Moscow's threats over the country's accession to NATO. Russia has redeployed personnel and equipment for the war against Ukraine, reports Yle.
Russia has threatened Finland with “consequences” if it joins NATO and promised to increase its military presence near the border, but now military bases in the region are more empty than a year ago.
“On average, 80% of the equipment and soldiers have been redeployed to the war against Ukraine,” the intelligence source told Yle.
The share of withdrawn Russian soldiers and equipment depends on the specific base, season, and training. Mostly instructors and recruits remained at the bases, while contract soldiers were sent to war.
According to Yle's source, Russia is raking equipment and soldiers from its bases not only near the Finnish border but throughout the country, except for the Moscow region.
Yle has obtained satellite images of Russian bases that confirm these changes. At the military base near Petrozavodsk, as of May 2024, dozens of pieces of equipment have disappeared compared to June 2023. Besides, a new hangar has appeared, which was not there before, and the equipment is no longer standing in the open.
If this report is true, and the Karelia region is now relatively undefended, Finland has the chance to do the funniest thing ever.
I used to be obsessed with Archie comics as a child, and I remember one story in which Archie’s asshole friend Reggie goes around bullying smaller, weaker students. When asked why he picks on little kids, Reggie responded, “do you really think I’m going to pick on the bigger kids?”
Eventually Reggie shoves one diminutive student, who stands up to him and challenges him to a fight. It turns out the little guy is a martial arts expert, prompting Reggie to insist he was just joking the whole time and that he never intended to fight.
I think about that story whenever I see where Russia chooses to send its troops, and where its armies steer well clear.